Calvin Nixon
From Ballots to Battlefields
Elections without Authority in a Fragmented and Contested Myanmar
AIES Comment 2026/2
11.02.2026 / Indo-Pazifik
Myanmar’s 2025–26 elections, dominated by the Tatmadaw-backed USDP, have done little to resolve the country’s post-coup crisis and instead highlight the regime’s weak legitimacy amid an expanding civil war and deepening territorial fragmentation. The paper argues that Myanmar is increasingly shaped by a competitive landscape of ethnic armed organisations, the National Unity Government and transnational criminal networks, while external powers exploit the resulting openings: China to secure corridor connectivity and border stability, India to expand access and influence along its northeastern periphery, and Russia (with Belarus) to sustain the junta through arms, technology and strategic investments. Against this backdrop, the EU faces a dilemma between maintaining moral credibility through humanitarian support and avoiding strategic marginalisation in a region where security risks—especially scam-compound economies—are rising. It recommends a pragmatic recalibration: sustain principled humanitarian engagement, articulate EU geopolitical interests, work with ASEAN partners (notably under the Philippines’ 2026 chairmanship), and selectively engage subnational actors to mitigate instability, counter illicit networks and advance conditions for human rights improvements, including for the Rohingya.