War on Iran – A Firestorm for the Middle East?
Mar 09, 2026 / Vienna / Global Affairs
On 9 March, the AIES and the Vienna School of International Studies, hosted a public event titled “War on Iran - A Firestorm for the Middle East?” to examine the escalating crisis surrounding Iran and its wider regional and global implications.
The discussion brought together a panel of experts including Hüseyin Bağcı, Professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical University Ankara; Arian Mehdi Hamidi-Faal, Middle East expert and independent journalist; Gülsüm Akbulut, CEO of Ankara Global Advisory Group; and Klaus Wölfer, Middle East Senior Advisor at AIES. The discussion was moderated by Werner Fasslabend, AIES President and president of the Austro-Iranian Society. Opening remarks were delivered by Martina Schubert, Deputy Director of the Vienna School of International Studies, and Michael Zinkanell, Director of the AIES.
The panel highlighted that the war involving Iran carries far-reaching regional consequences. According to the speakers, at least thirteen countries have already become directly or indirectly involved in the conflict, raising concerns about further escalation across the Middle East and beyond. The crisis risks spreading to neighbouring states such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and even Cyprus has been targeted.
A key part of the discussion focused on dynamics within Iran. Despite significant public dissatisfaction with the political leadership and severe economic pressure caused by rampant inflation, the current regime remains firmly in control for the time being. The panel emphasized that economic hardship has made it increasingly difficult for Iranians to maintain their livelihoods, yet internal political change remains uncertain.
Beyond the region, speakers warned of potentially severe economic consequences. Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices to around 100 US dollars per barrel, thus raising concerns about the stability of global markets. Net oil exporters such as the US and Russia could benefit from higher prices. Financial markets have already reacted nervously and some experts cautioned that prolonged escalation could contribute to a broader global recession.
Another major theme of the event was the apparent weakening of diplomatic mechanisms. The panel noted that traditional diplomacy has been sidelined in the crisis. Thus discussions stressed that the war on Iran represents not only a regional crisis but also a major test for global security, economic stability and the future of diplomatic relations
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