The Changing Security Landscape of the Indo-Pacific
Strategic Perspectives from Japan and Global Implications
Feb 16, 2026 / Vienna / Indo-Pacific
On February 13th and 16th, 2026, the AIES together with the Embassy of Japan and the Vienna School of International Studies hosted a closed-door workshop as well as a public event on “The Changing Security Landscape of the Indo-Pacific: Strategic Perspectives from Japan and Global Implications”. Both events highlighted the growing need for cooperation between middle powers in a shift from globalisation-centred thinking to growing geopolitical competition. Dr. Ken Jimbo, Professor of International Relations at Kaio University gave a lecture at both events. Welcome speaches and moderation were provided by Dr. Werner Fasslabend, President of the AIES; Michael Zinkanell, Director of the AIES, and Satoku Toku, Minister Counsellor at the Embassy of Japan Austria for Friday’s event. Amb. Dr. Martin Eichtinger, Director of the Vienna School of International Studies, opened and led discussions on the public event on Monday 16th.
Dr. Ken Jimbo’s lecture opened with remarks on Russia’s aggression in Europe, and continued with China’s military rise, which have fundamentally reshaped the global security environment. The role of the US under Trump’s administration was also stressed, in which it has increasingly adopted a more continental rather than maritime super power approach , foremost placing stronger emphasis on Western Hemisphere priorities in line with the Monroe Doctrine, while continuing Indo-Pacific engagement but with heightened expectations for allied burden-sharing.
China’s growing power is especially visible in regional military dynamics. Since 2005, China’s defence budget has expanded from rough parity with Japan to five or six times its size, accompanied by the deployment of approximately 1800 fourth-and fifth-generation fighter aircraft compared to Japan’s roughly 330. This dramatic expansion has fundamentally shifted the regional balance. Within this context, Taiwan is widely regarded as a potential flashpoint. The year 2027 is frequently cited as a possible crisis moment, given Xi fourth-term ambitions and the centenary of the PLA, although the likelihood of conflict will depend heavily on the credibility of deterrence-by-denial strategies.
In response to this shift, Japan has embarked on a significant strategic transformation. Its December 2022, National Defence Strategy marked a historic departure, from an exclusively defence-orientated posture, towards the acquisition of stand-off capabilities, including long-range missiles, capable of reaching the Taiwan strait. The political continuity reinforces this trajectory, as Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide electoral victory signals sustained committed to higher defence spending and a forward leaning security policy.
Lastly, Europe and Asia also face parallel structural challenges. Demographic pressures in both regions reshaping questions of identify, social cohesion and defence manpowers, requiring adaptive strategies and offering scope for mutual learning. In an era in which the US may appear less committed to upholding the liberal, rules-based order, middle-powers must recognise that multilateralism and economic openness are core national interests that require active defence and coordination.
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