Ready for 2029
Workshop at the Forum Wachau
May 19, 2026 / Krems / European Security and Defence / EU Neighbourhood / Global Affairs
As part of the cooperation between "Ready for 2029" and the European Forum Wachau, an interactive workshop took place on 19 May 2026 at Campus Krems. It was moderated by Leopold Schmertzing, AIES Associate and co-founder of the Austrian Defence Lab, and Ulf Steindl, AIES Senior Research Fellow.
The aim of the workshop was to examine Europe's security situation up to 2029 through a set of specially developed future scenarios and to critically assess their plausibility. The scenarios addressed key questions of European defence capability, potential political developments, the war against Ukraine, and possible conflicts in the Indo-Pacific.
A central element of the format was the targeted analysis of scenarios for plausibility and blind spots. Participants were invited to challenge existing assumptions and identify gaps in order to refine the scenarios and bring them closer to reality.
The group's assessments were revealing: a majority expected the war in Ukraine to still be ongoing in 2027. At the same time, there was widespread scepticism about Europe's ability to ensure its conventional defence in the short term without the United States — structural dependencies and years of underinvestment were seen as too significant to overcome quickly. Nevertheless, a clear majority agreed that European states would deploy troops to Ukraine following a possible ceasefire, even without US participation.
The results will feed into the ongoing scenario development of "Ready for 2029".
What is Ready for 2029?
Europe is facing a critical strategic moment. According to leading experts, the Russian army could be ready to attack NATO territory by 2029. At the same time, it is becoming apparent that the US will begin to gradually hand over responsibility for nuclear and conventional deterrence to its European allies as early as 2027.
“Ready for 2029” is an evidence-based scenario project by the AIES and the Austrian Defence Lab, developed in cooperation with the European Forum Wachau and the European Forum Alpbach. The scenario highlights the military, industrial and political steps Europe must take to be capable of deterrence by 2029. It involves leading experts from the fields of defence, business and politics – including through workshops and interviews – and works with realistic forecasts, alternative development paths and concrete recommendations for action.
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