Ready for 2029
First Workshop at the AIES
May 05, 2026 / Vienna / European Security and Defence / EU Neighbourhood / Global Affairs
On 5 May 2026, the first workshop as part of the project “Ready for 2029” took place at the AIES in Vienna. For around three hours, a select group of experts discussed the key drivers, uncertainties and potential turning points that will shape Europe’s security and defence policy up to 2029. The workshop was moderated by Leopold Schmertzing, AIES Associate and a founder of the Austrian Defence Lab, and Ulf Steindl, AIES Senior Research Fellow.
The focus of the discussion was on questions such as: Which political developments – from elections in France and the UK to the US mid-term elections – could have a decisive influence on Europe’s defence capabilities? What role do the continued existence of the US nuclear umbrella, Ukraine’s integration into European security structures and the growing dependence on US defence equipment play? And which wildcards could fundamentally alter the scenarios?
The results of the workshop will feed directly into the scenario development for “Ready for 2029” and form the basis for the next project phases, including expert interviews and the Wachau Forum.
What is Ready for 2029?
Europe is facing a critical strategic moment. According to leading experts, the Russian army could be ready to attack NATO territory by 2029. At the same time, it is becoming apparent that the US will begin to gradually hand over responsibility for nuclear and conventional deterrence to its European allies as early as 2027.
“Ready for 2029” is an evidence-based scenario project by the AIES and the Austrian Defence Lab, developed in cooperation with the European Forum Wachau and the European Forum Alpbach. The scenario highlights the military, industrial and political steps Europe must take to be capable of deterrence by 2029. It involves leading experts from the fields of defence, business and politics – including through workshops and interviews – and works with realistic forecasts, alternative development paths and concrete recommendations for action.
