Publications in English

Velina Tchakarova, Sofia Maria Satanakis, Michael Zinkanell: EU-Trends in 2020, AIES Fokus 14/2019

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement between Iran and the international community regarding its nuclear program, is a case study that has supplied us with an interesting opportunity to assess more broadly two fundamentally opposite viewpoints on foreign policy and the international system. Facing the commonly-accepted narrative, according to which the JCPOA has been a step in the right direction, a much-sought-for agreement that dismantles a nuclear program "without firing a single shot", some perceive it as a risky strategy on the part of the EU/E3. This article reviews and engages with the main arguments of both the "remain" and "terminate or fix" sides of the debate, confronts them with one another and attempts to disprove the agreement's credibility as a so-called effective international achievement. It does so while mainly focusing on the European viewpoint and interests, and points at the missing components in the EU/E3's current strategy in securing regional and global interests, such as fully relying on limited IAEA inspections, and the lack of pro-active intelligence effort to uncover Iranian violations. Rather, the EU/E3 aim the diplomatic fire at allies such as the United States and Israel, avoid assertively demanding Iran for explanations on violations and provocative activity, and have demonstrated one strategy: adhering to the JCPOA at all costs.

As the United States increasingly relinquishes its role as the primary security guarantor in the Middle East, China and Russia are pursuing a unique opportunity to reorient both Iran and its regional rivals into an emerging Sino-Russian Eurasian architecture. Outreach to the Middle East by the Sino-Russian partnership, a systemic coordination dubbed by strategic analyst Velina Tchakarova as the "Dragonbear,"1 has been hitherto hampered by the region's main geopolitical fault-line formed by the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. During the course of 2019, China and Russia made significant strides in bridging this divide by upgrading the strategic nature of their respective relationships with Saudi Arabia as well as with its close Persian Gulf ally the United Arab Emirates. Building on these advances, Beijing and Moscow will embark in 2020 on actively promoting the creation of new multilateral architecture for the Middle East whose organizing framework will be the Sino-Russian Dragonbear partnership.

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations and the Future Defense of the West – Implications for the EU and NATO, AIES Fokus 11/2019

David Stefanovic: Turkey's perennial strategic importance and the S-400 Saga, AIES Fokus 10/2019

Matteo Ilardo: Conflict Analysis: The Second Libyan Civil war – and how to avoid a third one, AIES Fokus 9/2019

Elisabetta Recher: Italy and France: The effects of competition between allies on the regional stability in Northern Africa and on the European Union (an Italian perspective), AIES Fokus 8/2019

Raphael J. Spoetta: A new nuclear crisis? Consequences arising from the US-Iranian collision course over the Iran Nuclear Agreement, AIES Fokus 7/2019

Micha'el Tanchum: Turkey's String of Pearls: Turkey's Overseas Naval Installations Reconfigure the Security Architecture of Mediterranean-Red Sea Corridor, AIES Fokus 4/2019

Turkey will soon preside over an arc of blue-water power projection extending from Northern Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean to Qatar in the Persian Gulf that fundamentally alters the security architecture of the Middle East. Deftly combining soft power initiatives with the construction of coastal military installations in Sudan on the Red Sea and in Somalia on the Arabian Sea, Turkey has created a ‚string of pearls' that directly challenges the power of Egypt-Saudi Arabia-United Arab Emirates alliance. With the military entrenchment of Turkey in the Horn of Africa, the Turkey-Qatar versus Egypt-Saudi Arabia-UAE competition has created an incendiary fault-line that now encompasses the entire Eastern Mediterranean-Red Sea maritime corridor.

Backed by Qatar, Turkey's maritime expansion is also a response to Egypt's trilateral strategic partnership with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, an alignment supported by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In this complex web of rival alliances that spans the Aegean and Arabian seas, any one of the previously localized conflicts could ignite a wider regional clash.

Julian Grinschgl: Pipeline Politics, A Single Market, and the Rise of Renewable Energy: Challenges and Pathways for European Energy Security, AIES Fokus 3/2019

At the end of 2018, Gazprom reported a record high in natural gas exports to Europe, exceeding 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the first time. As of, early January 2019, the United States (US) ambassador to Germany threatened to sanction German companies that will continue to be engaged in the controversial Nord Stream 2 (NS2) project, aiming to build another direct pipeline from Russia to Germany circumventing transit states. Just a few months earlier President Trump boldly announced that Europe would buy "vast amounts" of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and criticized Germany as being held captive by Russian energy exports. Moreover, Turkey threatened Cyprus over the exploitation of newly discovered gas on disputed territory, and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, announced another $2 billion investment in solar and carbon complex facilities as part of 12 large renewable energy projects in the country. These headlines illustrate the continuing dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas, the ongoing shift in global energy markets due to the shale gas revolution, new technologies, renewable energy, as well as, competition over customers and suppliers. This article will focus on energy security, commonly defined as "the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price", for the EU, but will also consider geopolitical aspects and aims at identifying challenges and pathways forward.

Lívia Benková: Hungary-Orbán's project towards "illiberal democracy", AIES Fokus 2/2019

The recent developments in the country and its controversial reforms reflect, that Hungary is steadily moving away from the principles of a liberal democracy and is heading towards becoming a centralized, semi-authoritarian state. The course of Hungary was clearly stated by Prime Minister Orbán himself as he announced his preference of "illiberal democracy", in 2014 at a speech in Transylvania, Romania.

Shaun Riordan: Post-Brexit Relations between the EU and the UK in the Field of Security and Defence Policy, AIES Fokus 1/2019

Adam Karlsson: African Union – European Union relations: untapped opportunity or unsolvable predicament? A look at the development of the relations between Europe and Africa in recent years, AIES Fokus 8/2018

Alex Tanchev: The strategic dimensions of cyber-security – an interdisciplinary approach, AIES Fokus 7/2018

Sofia Maria Satanakis: Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: The Prespa Agreement. What comes next?, AIES Fokus 6/2018

Matteo Ilardo: The Rivalry between France and Italy over Libya and its Southwest Theatre, AIES Fokus 5/2018

Peter Nassif: The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018: Much Ado about Nothing?, AIES Fokus 4/2018

Lívia Benková: The Rise of Russian Disinformation in Europe, AIES Fokus 3/2018

Benjamin Zyla: How to Strengthen Resilience in Fragile States: Taking Stock, AIES Fokus 8/2017

Lawrence Kettle: Brexit Negotiations: Phase One Completed?, AIES Fokus 7/2017

João Raphael da Silva: 'Jihadist Terrorism' and EU Responses: Current and Future Challenges, AIES Fokus 6/2017

Christine Strassmaier: The next chapter of the Syria crises – (obstacles to) reconstruction under the perspective of the current and future trajectory of the conflict, AIES Fokus 5/2017

Lívia Benková: Europe's Response to the Migration Crisis, AIES Fokus 3/2017

Stephanie Polezzeli: The South American Integration Trail: The Southern Integration and the European Union Model, AIES Fokus 2/2017

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations: A perfect storm across the Atlantic, AIES Fokus 1/2017

Lívia Benková: The Dayton Agreement Then and Now, AIES Fokus 7/2016

Apolonija Rihtarić: Why Croatia urgently needs a new holistic National Security Strategy, AIES Fokus 5/2016

Christine Strassmaier: Lebanese Municipality Elections 2016: Local decisions with national and regional ramifications, AIES Fokus 4/2016

Fariza Dzorthova: Understanding the Russian withdrawal from Syria, AIES Fokus 3/2016

Christine Straßmaier: Turning the tide? Developments in the fifth year of the Syrian civil war, AIES Fokus 2/2016

Lawrence Kettle: The UK’s Referendum on EU Membership: The debates and the consequences of a Brexit, AIES Fokus 1/2016

Kamil Szubart: The Future of Polish Foreign and Security Policy in the context of Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in 2015, AIES Fokus 8/2015

David Christopher Jaklin: Western Volunteer Fighters fighting Daesh – Background and possible Implications, AIES Fokus 7/2015

David B. Skillicorn / Christian Leuprecht: Beyond the Castle Model of Cyber-Risk and Cyber-Security, AIES Studien 4/2015

Velina Tchakarova: What future for the Eastern Partnership? More than a partnership, less than a membership, AIES Fokus 5/2015

As a partner institute of the European Security and Defence College, the AIES is pleased to inform about the new "Handbook on CSDP missions and operations". The 'Handbook on CSDP missions and operations' deals with the operational level of the Common Security and Defence Policy of the European Union. It describes various crisis management tools which are combined within the 'comprehensive approach' and includes topics such as development, diplomacy and defence. With reference to current crises, the handbook deals with hot topics such as hybrid warfare, cyber security, strategic communication and maritime security. In her foreword, HR/VP Mogherini writes: 'This handbook makes an important contribution to explaining the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy. Apart from being an invaluable resource for trainers and trainees of the European Security and Defence College, it is a one-stop shop for anyone in search of a full picture of the EU’s security and defence policy.' Jochen Rehrl, Galia Glume (eds): Handbook on CSDP missions and operations. Vienna, 2015. ISBN 978-3-902275-42-4. The Handbook can be downloaded via the website of the ESDC.

Iryna Mikhnovets: Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: what has been done after the decisive Eastern Partnership, AIES Fokus 4/2015

Stefanie Felsberger: Gaza: Destructive Reconstruction, AIES Fokus 3/2015.

Oleksiy Melnyk: Should War Be Given the Name … and A Chance?, AIES Fokus 2/2015.

Arnold Kammel: The EU-Africa Partnership: Another Lost Year? AIES Fokus 8/2014.

Arnold Kammel / Sofia Satanakis: NATO after Wales: Back in Business? AIES Fokus 7/2014.

Benjamin Zyla: Between Mars and Venus: Transatlantic strategic cultures and Canadian Earthlings? AIES Fokus 6/2014.

Stefanie Felsberger: Palestine in Egypt: From Solidarity to Fear to Common Struggle, AIES Fokus 5/2014.

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations: Permanent Alliance or Perpetual Crisis?, AIES Fokus 2/2014.

Lidija Čehulić Vukadinović: The Croatian View on the EU Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), AIES Fokus 1/2014.

Vladimir Bilcik: The Emergence of the CESDP and the State of the Transatlantic Relations. The Perspective of Central European Candidate States for EU-Membership, Maria Enzersdorf 2001.