Publications in English

Eloïse Ryon: The Franco-German reaction to the COVID19 pandemic and its consequences, a step forward for Europe? AIES Fokus 13/2020

With the recent reshuffle of the French government and the current Council of the European Union's German Presidency, the Franco-German couple still has a lot to give to the European project. However, the intrinsically collaborative nature of relations between France and Germany over the past few years, particularly on the future of the European Union, has sometimes overshadowed the differences that distinguish both countries. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, has revealed those diverging stances, not only in terms of public policy, but also in terms of culture and society.

The more obvious reflection of those differences can be seen in the use of language of the President of the French Republic and President of the Federal Republic of Germany when addressing respectively the French and German people, encouraging them in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. On one hand, Emmanuel Macron repeated several times "Nous sommes en guerre", or "We are at war", a quite blunt and violent referral to war times that some would not have deemed appropriate even in such circumstances. On the other hand, Frank-Walter Steinmeier referred to the pandemic as a "Prüfung unserer Menschlichkeit", or "test for humanity". Those two radically different and diverging approaches to the crisis demonstrate the differences of cultures between France and Germany. Such distinctions have undeniably had an impact on the handling of the crisis by both countries. The question is: will the Franco-German couple be able to go beyond those embedded differences in order to drive the European Union out of the pandemic and its economic and social consequences?

Lívia Benko: What would the possible change in the US leadership mean for the Central European countries? AIES Fokus 12/2020

Amid the ongoing pandemic that has impeded the world in a significant way, the Central European countries are eagerly focusing their attention to their most important ally across the Atlantic. As the US elections are nearing, the region in the heart of Europe is raising the question of: what changes will the US elections bring? Since Donald Trump's win in 2016 and his "America first" campaign, the US has been gradually shifting away from its allies, and the relations to its European partners have been notably strained. The president's numerous attacks on multilateral institutions such as NATO have tested the long-standing ties with the European countries. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has also damaged America's image within the European countries, according to a recent survey of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The United States' insufficient response to the pandemic has brought doubt upon the capability of America to be a global leader. In numbers, 68 percent of French, 65 percent of Germans and 38 percent of Poles have decreased in trust towards the US, according to the poll. In the last four years, Trump's presidency remained indifferent to the political developments and has effortlessly watched the democratic standards in Central Europe decline. It can be said that Hungary is hardly a functioning democracy anymore and Poland will reach the same situation soon, if nothing changes. The current approach of the US has solely focused on business interests and security instead of values. This can be clearly seen when comparing Obama's and Trump's approach in certain situations. For example, the administration of Barack Obama steadily and openly criticized the fading democratic path in Hungary and Poland. However, with the arrival of Donald Trump, all pressure on the Central European governments to maintain democracy was gone. For instance, during the Polish President's visit to the White House in 2019, President Trump was questioned regarding his stance on the violation of the rule of law in Poland. Whereas Trump's response was: "there is no problem with democracy in Poland" and that he is "not concerned, at all". Given the aforementioned, the Central European region (CEE) gained the belief that as long as American business interests are satisfied, the White House will not meddle with the deterioration of democratic values in these countries. Trump's administration has been long trying to revive the unity of the countries of the former Habsburg empire and simultaneously aiming to weaken Germany, as well as strengthening the central European states' distrust towards Russia. The reason for weakening Germany is that a German-led Europe would probably mean a pro-Russian Europe, and that is not something the US would be comfortable with. After the UK leaving the "block", Trump's focus moved towards forging stronger ties between Austria and the Visegrad countries, headed by Poland, one of the most faithful allies of the US. In America's view, Vienna could serve as the capital of Central Europe and replace Berlin's current role.

Michael Cserkits: The coup d'état in Mali – Synchronizing African Facts with European Conceptions, AIES Fokus 11/2020

The recent military mutiny in Mali surprised many Western states and led to a political shock in Europe. Unsurprisingly, the leaders of the coup d'état had been condemned by many politicians and a call for normalization, including the restoration of Ibrahim Boubacar Keita's (the elected president of the Republic of Mali, mostly referred to as IBK) rule, was immediately demanded. Even though IBK resigned as of August24th, his international backup, especially from France, hasn't diminished. Despite the illegitimate overthrow of a legally elected government, the bulk of the Malian population is still supporting the coup, as civil unrest or resistance against the events cannot be observed on any noteworthy scale. Due to the low level of acceptance of Keita's rule over the years, backup from the population and civil resistance to a violent removal of the actual government is more than unlikely.

Michaël Tanchum: Italy and Turkey's Europe-to-Africa Commercial Corridor: Rome and Ankara's Geopolitical Symbiosis Is Creating a New Mediterranean Strategic Paradigm, AIES Fokus 10/2020

A geopolitical symbiosis between Italy and Turkey is creating a Turkey-Italy-Tunisia transportation corridor that promises to reconfigure the patterns of trade between Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Slicing across the center of the Mediterranean basin, the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia corridor forms an arc of commercial connectivity from the Maghreb to the wider Black Sea. The corridor's central hub is Italy's deep-sea port of Taranto, located on the Italian peninsula's southern tip in the strategic heart of the Mediterranean Sea. Managed by Turkish port operator Yilport, the Taranto port began servicing the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia corridor in early July 2020. The Taranto-Tunisia segment simultaneously forms the core link of the corridor's Europe-to-Africa transport route, by connecting North Africa's coast to the manufacturing centers of Italy, Germany, and northern Europe via Italy and Europe's high-speed rail systems. From Tunisia's ports, the corridor can also link via Algeria to the Trans-Saharan Highway, potentially extending Italy and Turkey's Europe-to-Africa corridor southward into West Africa as far as Lagos, Nigeria.

Johann Wolfschwenger: The EU's Eastern Partnership between a rock and a hard place, AIES Fokus 9/2020

The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is the frame- work policy for the engagement between the European Union (EU) and six East- European states – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The recent revisions of the EaP bring to the fore a growing discrepancy between expectations of pro-European actors in the neighbourhood states and the actual policy pursued by the EU Commission. As a result, the neighbourhood countries find themselves in a 'strategic dilemma': On the one hand, reform efforts and 'European aspirations' may not be adequately awarded with integration steps, let alone a membership perspective. On the other hand, EU integration further nurtures rivalling regionalisms between the EU and Russia, which make it hard for the neighbourhood states to balance between the two. However, this rivalry is clearly of political nature. From an economic perspective, enhanced free trade between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the EU would bring benefits for the members of both organizations.

Michaël Tanchum: Morocco's Africa-to-Europe Commercial Corridor: Gatekeeper of an emerging trans-regional strategic architecture, AIES Fokus 08/2020

Morocco's West-Africa-to-Western-Europe commercial transportation corridor is redefining the geopolitical parameters of the global scramble for Africa and, with it, the strategic architecture of the Mediterranean basin. By massively expanding the port capacity on its Mediterranean coast, Morocco has surpassed Spain and is poised to become the dominant maritime hub in the western Mediterranean. Having constructed Africa's first high-speed rail line, Morocco's extension of the line to the Mauritanian border, will transform Morocco into the preeminent connectivity node in the nexus of commercial routes that connect West Africa to Europe and the Middle East.

While Morocco is commonly referred to as the 'Gateway to Africa', the country's program of ambitious transportation and industrial infrastructure projects, initiated by its visionary monarch King Mohammed VI, has conferred upon Morocco the role of geopolitical gatekeeper in a new global competition for the manufacturing value chains in the West-Africa-to-Western-Europe Corridor. As such, Morocco itself has become an arena of global competition in which China, Russia, and the Arab Gulf states are playing increasingly significant roles.

Although the French-led European industrial manufacturing chain predominates in Morocco, France remains bereft of European partners willing to play a strategic role in Morocco's infrastructure development. This gap creates a potential for Beijing to exploit its expanding role in Morocco's infrastructure development to re-orient manufacturing value chains in Morocco toward China's Belt and Road Initiative. The configuration of Africa-to-Europe value chains that result from how Morocco manages its set of foreign partnerships will establish the geopolitical framework of this emerging trans-regional commercial architecture for years to come.

Arthur de Liedekerke, Michael Zinkanell: Deceive and Disrupt: Disinformation as an Emerging Cybersecurity Challenge, AIES Studies Nr. 13, June 2020

Today's technological connectivity has opened up both extraordinary opportunities and unprecedented risks. Recent events have served as an acute reminder that digital disinformation has evolved from being a marginal nuisance to a potent tool to target people, organisations, or entire societies. Worryingly, disinformation campaigns appear to be the latest weapon in the arsenal of hostile actors carrying out cyberattacks.

Demonstrating the growing overlap between disinformation and cybersecurity is the central focus of this study. The authors notably call on the cybersecurity community to recognise disinformation as an emerging challenge and to offer solutions to address it.

This analysis, which is based on comprehensive secondary source research and first-hand expert interviews, starts by presenting an overview of the typology and nature of disinformation, followed with a novel tactical approach to online influence operations. At this stage, contextual depth is provided with relevant examples of disinformation, comparing malicious campaigns and narratives of several state actors. Lastly, the authors provide a future outlook and concrete recommendations, arguing that it is vital to implement integrated political approaches that treat the nexus of disinformation and cybersecurity holistically.

EuroPolicy, o.z. and EURACTIV Slovakia have asked leaders, professionals and key regional security experts to weigh in and offer their perspectives on how the transatlantic relations may change due to the pandemic. Although they share a similar view of the challenges faced by the Alliance, not only from the external environment, but also internally, they agree that NATO cannot be replaced or pushed to the background. Statement by Sofia Maria Satanakis.

Christoph Schwarz, Sofia-Maria Satanakis: Space Race 2.0 – Renewed Great Power Competition in the Earth's Orbit, AIES Fokus 6/2020

Tamara Stangl, Michael Zinkanell: The Covid-19 Situation in Syria: Impacts, Scenarios, and Responses, AIES Fokus 05/2020

Lívia Benko: Development Aid, Migration and Conditionality – The Case of the Marshall Plan with Africa, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies Policy Brief Analyses, May 2020

Velina Tchakarova: The Dragonbear: An Axis of Convenience or a New Mode of
Shaping the Global System? Irmo Brief 05/2020

Since 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been the main framework for European security based on the principle of collective defence. Despite occasional tensions between some of the European NATO members and US President Donald Trump in recent years, the cooperation between the European Union (EU) and NATO has been deepened with unprecedented speed and scope on an institutional level, which has an overall stabilizing effect on the transatlantic relationship. Under the Trump administration, the USA has increased contributions to the Alliance, proving that European members have not lost their importance to Washington.

Against this background, the paper seeks to present an overall view of the latest trends and developments considering the Transatlantic Alliance, as well as potential implications on the future cooperation between the EU and NATO under the impact of the Covid-19 virus outbreak.

Michael Zinkanell: Disinformation during Covid-19 from a European Perspective, AIES Fokus 03/2020

Covid-19 and Europe-China Relations
A country-level analysis
European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC)
Special Report – 29 April 2020

Dr. Alexander Klimburg, Louk Faesen, Paul Verhagen, Philipp Mirtl: Pandemic Mitigation in the Digital Age - Digital Epidemiological Measures to Combat the Coronavirus Pandemic, AIES Studies, Nr. 12, March 2020

Alex Tanchev: Securitization in the Black Sea Region, AIES Studies, Nr. 11, March 2020

Stefanie Felsberger: Colonial Cables – The Politics of Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa, AIES Studies 10, Feb 2020

Matteo Ilardo: Violent extremism in the Sahel. Countering vulnerability to radical narratives: towards a more pragmatic approach, AIES Fokus 01/2020

Edited by: Mario Esteban and Miguel Otero-Iglesias along with Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Alice Ekman, Lucrezia Poggetti, Björn Jerdén, John Seaman, Tim Summers and Justyna Szczudlik. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), January 2020.

The fifth edition of the ETNC report explores how Europe is responding to increased US-Chinese geopolitical rivalry. It contains 18 country perspectives on Europe's difficult balancing act between the US, a long-term strategic and economic partner, and China, the EU's second most important market and, probably, the next economic superpower. The evidence presented in this report shows how US unilateralism and Chinese assertiveness have triggered a rethinking of the EU's strategic landscape. Despite the differences between EU member states, its key finding is that all the countries analysed are in a similar position. They all consider the US their most important ally and they all depend on its military protection, but they also want to do as much business with China as possible.

The EU and its member states see trouble in their relations with both Washington and Beijing, and in the rivalry between these two partners, but they also seemingly need them both to enhance European prosperity. By performing this balancing act, the common European objective is to avoid a bipolar system in which EU member states are forced to pick sides on all relevant policy issues. This is reflected in the reluctance of many member states to issue a blanket ban on Chinese companies' access to their 5G markets.

In the report, Adam Urosevic, Associate Research Fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, examines the case of Austria. He concludes that Austria would be prudent to re-evaluate its dated understanding of neutrality and promote the EU's strategic autonomy amidst systemic US-Chinese rivalry.

Velina Tchakarova, Sofia Maria Satanakis, Michael Zinkanell: EU-Trends in 2020, AIES Fokus 14/2019

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement between Iran and the international community regarding its nuclear program, is a case study that has supplied us with an interesting opportunity to assess more broadly two fundamentally opposite viewpoints on foreign policy and the international system. Facing the commonly-accepted narrative, according to which the JCPOA has been a step in the right direction, a much-sought-for agreement that dismantles a nuclear program "without firing a single shot", some perceive it as a risky strategy on the part of the EU/E3. This article reviews and engages with the main arguments of both the "remain" and "terminate or fix" sides of the debate, confronts them with one another and attempts to disprove the agreement's credibility as a so-called effective international achievement. It does so while mainly focusing on the European viewpoint and interests, and points at the missing components in the EU/E3's current strategy in securing regional and global interests, such as fully relying on limited IAEA inspections, and the lack of pro-active intelligence effort to uncover Iranian violations. Rather, the EU/E3 aim the diplomatic fire at allies such as the United States and Israel, avoid assertively demanding Iran for explanations on violations and provocative activity, and have demonstrated one strategy: adhering to the JCPOA at all costs.

As the United States increasingly relinquishes its role as the primary security guarantor in the Middle East, China and Russia are pursuing a unique opportunity to reorient both Iran and its regional rivals into an emerging Sino-Russian Eurasian architecture. Outreach to the Middle East by the Sino-Russian partnership, a systemic coordination dubbed by strategic analyst Velina Tchakarova as the "Dragonbear,"1 has been hitherto hampered by the region's main geopolitical fault-line formed by the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. During the course of 2019, China and Russia made significant strides in bridging this divide by upgrading the strategic nature of their respective relationships with Saudi Arabia as well as with its close Persian Gulf ally the United Arab Emirates. Building on these advances, Beijing and Moscow will embark in 2020 on actively promoting the creation of new multilateral architecture for the Middle East whose organizing framework will be the Sino-Russian Dragonbear partnership.

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations and the Future Defense of the West – Implications for the EU and NATO, AIES Fokus 11/2019

David Stefanovic: Turkey's perennial strategic importance and the S-400 Saga, AIES Fokus 10/2019

Matteo Ilardo: Conflict Analysis: The Second Libyan Civil war – and how to avoid a third one, AIES Fokus 9/2019

Elisabetta Recher: Italy and France: The effects of competition between allies on the regional stability in Northern Africa and on the European Union (an Italian perspective), AIES Fokus 8/2019

Raphael J. Spoetta: A new nuclear crisis? Consequences arising from the US-Iranian collision course over the Iran Nuclear Agreement, AIES Fokus 7/2019

Michaël Tanchum: Turkey's String of Pearls: Turkey's Overseas Naval Installations Reconfigure the Security Architecture of Mediterranean-Red Sea Corridor, AIES Fokus 4/2019

Turkey will soon preside over an arc of blue-water power projection extending from Northern Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean to Qatar in the Persian Gulf that fundamentally alters the security architecture of the Middle East. Deftly combining soft power initiatives with the construction of coastal military installations in Sudan on the Red Sea and in Somalia on the Arabian Sea, Turkey has created a ‚string of pearls' that directly challenges the power of Egypt-Saudi Arabia-United Arab Emirates alliance. With the military entrenchment of Turkey in the Horn of Africa, the Turkey-Qatar versus Egypt-Saudi Arabia-UAE competition has created an incendiary fault-line that now encompasses the entire Eastern Mediterranean-Red Sea maritime corridor.

Backed by Qatar, Turkey's maritime expansion is also a response to Egypt's trilateral strategic partnership with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, an alignment supported by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In this complex web of rival alliances that spans the Aegean and Arabian seas, any one of the previously localized conflicts could ignite a wider regional clash.

Julian Grinschgl: Pipeline Politics, A Single Market, and the Rise of Renewable Energy: Challenges and Pathways for European Energy Security, AIES Fokus 3/2019

At the end of 2018, Gazprom reported a record high in natural gas exports to Europe, exceeding 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the first time. As of, early January 2019, the United States (US) ambassador to Germany threatened to sanction German companies that will continue to be engaged in the controversial Nord Stream 2 (NS2) project, aiming to build another direct pipeline from Russia to Germany circumventing transit states. Just a few months earlier President Trump boldly announced that Europe would buy "vast amounts" of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and criticized Germany as being held captive by Russian energy exports. Moreover, Turkey threatened Cyprus over the exploitation of newly discovered gas on disputed territory, and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, announced another $2 billion investment in solar and carbon complex facilities as part of 12 large renewable energy projects in the country. These headlines illustrate the continuing dependence of Europe on Russian natural gas, the ongoing shift in global energy markets due to the shale gas revolution, new technologies, renewable energy, as well as, competition over customers and suppliers. This article will focus on energy security, commonly defined as "the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price", for the EU, but will also consider geopolitical aspects and aims at identifying challenges and pathways forward.

Lívia Benková: Hungary-Orbán's project towards "illiberal democracy", AIES Fokus 2/2019

The recent developments in the country and its controversial reforms reflect, that Hungary is steadily moving away from the principles of a liberal democracy and is heading towards becoming a centralized, semi-authoritarian state. The course of Hungary was clearly stated by Prime Minister Orbán himself as he announced his preference of "illiberal democracy", in 2014 at a speech in Transylvania, Romania.

Shaun Riordan: Post-Brexit Relations between the EU and the UK in the Field of Security and Defence Policy, AIES Fokus 1/2019

Adam Karlsson: African Union – European Union relations: untapped opportunity or unsolvable predicament? A look at the development of the relations between Europe and Africa in recent years, AIES Fokus 8/2018

Alex Tanchev: The strategic dimensions of cyber-security – an interdisciplinary approach, AIES Fokus 7/2018

Sofia Maria Satanakis: Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: The Prespa Agreement. What comes next?, AIES Fokus 6/2018

Matteo Ilardo: The Rivalry between France and Italy over Libya and its Southwest Theatre, AIES Fokus 5/2018

Peter Nassif: The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections of 2018: Much Ado about Nothing?, AIES Fokus 4/2018

Lívia Benková: The Rise of Russian Disinformation in Europe, AIES Fokus 3/2018

Benjamin Zyla: How to Strengthen Resilience in Fragile States: Taking Stock, AIES Fokus 8/2017

Lawrence Kettle: Brexit Negotiations: Phase One Completed?, AIES Fokus 7/2017

João Raphael da Silva: 'Jihadist Terrorism' and EU Responses: Current and Future Challenges, AIES Fokus 6/2017

Christine Strassmaier: The next chapter of the Syria crises – (obstacles to) reconstruction under the perspective of the current and future trajectory of the conflict, AIES Fokus 5/2017

Lívia Benková: Europe's Response to the Migration Crisis, AIES Fokus 3/2017

Stephanie Polezzeli: The South American Integration Trail: The Southern Integration and the European Union Model, AIES Fokus 2/2017

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations: A perfect storm across the Atlantic, AIES Fokus 1/2017

Lívia Benková: The Dayton Agreement Then and Now, AIES Fokus 7/2016

Apolonija Rihtarić: Why Croatia urgently needs a new holistic National Security Strategy, AIES Fokus 5/2016

Christine Strassmaier: Lebanese Municipality Elections 2016: Local decisions with national and regional ramifications, AIES Fokus 4/2016

Fariza Dzorthova: Understanding the Russian withdrawal from Syria, AIES Fokus 3/2016

Christine Straßmaier: Turning the tide? Developments in the fifth year of the Syrian civil war, AIES Fokus 2/2016

Lawrence Kettle: The UK’s Referendum on EU Membership: The debates and the consequences of a Brexit, AIES Fokus 1/2016

Kamil Szubart: The Future of Polish Foreign and Security Policy in the context of Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in 2015, AIES Fokus 8/2015

David Christopher Jaklin: Western Volunteer Fighters fighting Daesh – Background and possible Implications, AIES Fokus 7/2015

David B. Skillicorn / Christian Leuprecht: Beyond the Castle Model of Cyber-Risk and Cyber-Security, AIES Studien 4/2015

Velina Tchakarova: What future for the Eastern Partnership? More than a partnership, less than a membership, AIES Fokus 5/2015

As a partner institute of the European Security and Defence College, the AIES is pleased to inform about the new "Handbook on CSDP missions and operations". The 'Handbook on CSDP missions and operations' deals with the operational level of the Common Security and Defence Policy of the European Union. It describes various crisis management tools which are combined within the 'comprehensive approach' and includes topics such as development, diplomacy and defence. With reference to current crises, the handbook deals with hot topics such as hybrid warfare, cyber security, strategic communication and maritime security. In her foreword, HR/VP Mogherini writes: 'This handbook makes an important contribution to explaining the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy. Apart from being an invaluable resource for trainers and trainees of the European Security and Defence College, it is a one-stop shop for anyone in search of a full picture of the EU’s security and defence policy.' Jochen Rehrl, Galia Glume (eds): Handbook on CSDP missions and operations. Vienna, 2015. ISBN 978-3-902275-42-4. The Handbook can be downloaded via the website of the ESDC.

Iryna Mikhnovets: Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia: what has been done after the decisive Eastern Partnership, AIES Fokus 4/2015

Stefanie Felsberger: Gaza: Destructive Reconstruction, AIES Fokus 3/2015.

Oleksiy Melnyk: Should War Be Given the Name … and A Chance?, AIES Fokus 2/2015.

Arnold Kammel: The EU-Africa Partnership: Another Lost Year? AIES Fokus 8/2014.

Arnold Kammel / Sofia Satanakis: NATO after Wales: Back in Business? AIES Fokus 7/2014.

Benjamin Zyla: Between Mars and Venus: Transatlantic strategic cultures and Canadian Earthlings? AIES Fokus 6/2014.

Stefanie Felsberger: Palestine in Egypt: From Solidarity to Fear to Common Struggle, AIES Fokus 5/2014.

Stanley R. Sloan: Transatlantic Relations: Permanent Alliance or Perpetual Crisis?, AIES Fokus 2/2014.

Lidija Čehulić Vukadinović: The Croatian View on the EU Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), AIES Fokus 1/2014.

Vladimir Bilcik: The Emergence of the CESDP and the State of the Transatlantic Relations. The Perspective of Central European Candidate States for EU-Membership, Maria Enzersdorf 2001.