Statements by Arnold Kammel
Russia, U.S. can agree on START, AMS in presidents' upcoming Moscow meeting
Russia and the United States have many opportunities to reach an agreement on the Startegic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and deploying the U.S. Anti-Missile System (AMS) in the upcoming meeting of the presidents in Moscow and this will become an important signal for the world community, experts believe.
"The discussions on the anti-missile system have to be seen in the context of the negotiations about a new START regime. Both sites have no alternatives than cooperation," European Expert on security Arnold Kammel believes.
The agreement on Obama's visit to Moscow has been reached during the two leaders' April meeting in London before the G20 summit. At that time, Medvedev stated that he is satisfied with familiarization with his American counterpart and hopes for an interesting and fruitful meeting in the Russian capital. The visit is scheduled for 6-8 July.
Observers believe the START and AMS will become the main topics of the meeting of Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, and have every chance of success.
Kammel said now there are new American plans on the table talking about cooperation with Russia in a common anti-missile system. The involvement of Russian assets, particularly Russian radars, would enhance the capability of that kind of a European-based system, the expert believes.
"It would not be a surprise if an agreement on START and maybe on the anti-missile system could be announced at the forthcoming Russian-US summit which could be signed by the end of the year," Research Fellow at the Institute for the European Security Policy Kammel wrote to Trend News in an email.
U.S.-Russian collaboration would have an additional benefit of a diplomatic signaling to rogue regimes, such as Iran or North Korea that this is an unacceptable course for them to pursue and that they will face a concerted and unified international community, should they proceed down that path, the expert believes.
Russian political scientist Mikhail Remizov also believes that the nuclear disarmament will become one of the main topics of the Russian and U.S. presidents' meeting. "This is a winning issue in the public respect for Barack Obama, who strives for an international leader image of the left-wing to the international image of the leader of left-wing global trend," Director of the Institute of National Strategy Remizov told Trend News in a telephone conversation from Moscow.
Remizov said the nuclear demilitarization issue should compensate Obama's forced steps on militarization in Afghanistan. "This is important for Medvedev for another reason, as the nuclear disarmament is the only issue that Russia can discuss with the United States equally which is emotionally important for the Kremlin," said Remizov.
Russia is ready to implement the agreement to reduce nuclear weapons, simply because the Russian strategic forces are reduced regardless the contract because useful time of missiles expires and a new weapon is not introduced, he said.
Deploying the AMS which is inextricably connected with START will also become one of the key topics of the presidents' discussions, observers believe.
Cooperation between US and Russia in a missile-defense system is very probable, European expert on security Beata Kviatek - Simanska said.
"Cooperation between two in developing a missile defense system is plausible and is very believable, similarly, as any other cooperation that contributes to a good relationship," Kviatek - Simanska, Professor International Relations at Netherlands-based University of Groningen, wrote Trend News in an email.
U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III told Congress on June 16 that the Obama administration is exploring ways to involve two Russian radar installations in a missile-defense system for Central Europe, Washington Post reported.
Simanska said some time ago American officials with director of the US MDA O'Reilly visited Russia to discuss possibilities of using Russian radars in the case of an Iranian ballistic missile attack.
"U.S. officials were quite positive about Russia's participation in this project," Simanska said.
Remizov said cooperation between Russian and U.S. on the AMS will also be examined. "In this regard, the agreement on the radar in Gabala is out of opportunities, but the U.S. missile defense will unlikely be deployed in Russia," Remizov said.
The post-election situation in Iran may become an acute topic of
discussion in the future negotiations between U.S. and Russian
Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitriy Medvedev, famous American Political
Scientist Mark Katz believes.
"If the protests in Iran continue, this will be a tense meeting [July meeting of Russian and U.S. presidents] because the Russians will have convinced themselves that this is the work of the Americans, even though it is not," Professor of the George Mason University Department of Public and International Affairs Katz wrote to Trend News in an email.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad garnered 63.6 percent of votes and won the
presidential elections held on June 12 under supervision of the
Interior Ministry and Guardian Council of Iran. The remained three
candidates stated that the elections were accompanied with mass
In many cities of Iran, millions of people hold protest actions due to the results of the vote in the presidential election. The participants of the actions faced brutal actions of the authorities. It was officially confirmed that 13 participants were shot.
Katz said the longer the Iranian protests continue, the more the Obama Administration will be forced to side with the Iranian opposition.
"It will simply look bad in the U.S. and the West if he does not," he said.
Moscow, though, will have no interest in this, he believes. So Iran is likely to be a difficult issue, he added.
"Progress could be made, though, on some bilateral issues such as arms control and trade," Katz said.
Remizov believes the United States will not hold a strict position toward Iran, until the crisis ends, and the American will build their policies depending on settlement of this issue. "So far, until the crisis is not eliminated, there will not be a key breakthrough in this issues, but we can wait for the joint statements that the parties are concerned about the situation in Iran," he said.
Remizov said neither Moscow nor Washington will take steps on Iran's nuclear program until the crisis is not solved, because it would be useful for Barack Obama that the political crisis in Iran will be resolved through compromise.
Another American Political Scientist Bert Rockman believes Obama and Medvedev get along better than their predecessors had, but there is quite a lot to talk about from natural gas to computer hacking to Georgia.
"Probably, the two most important issues for now have to do with Iran, complicated by the regime's fragility, and North Korea and problems of nuclear proliferation to non-state actors," Professor of Political Sciences at the Purdue University Bert Rockman wrote to Trend News in an email.
Especially the US have to erode the perception that the US final goal is to destroy Russia as the US have been constantly moving to a new strategic paradigm in not considering Russia as an enemy, Kammel believes. "Both players have not the will and capacity for a confrontation," he said.
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